Inevitable Civil War in Afghanistan

 

By: Asfandyar Qayum

With the rocket attacks at Kabul Airport on Monday morning, the situation in Afghanistan is further exacerbated. It was evident since the very first day of Biden’s announcement of swift withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan. Furthermore, the speech of Biden after the fall of Kabul made it evident that America was never interested in nation-building in Afghanistan. They invaded Afghanistan, fought the war on terror, and left Afghanistan in turmoil.

President Joe Biden proclaimed in April 2021 the withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan. He declared that United States troops would bequeath the security charge to Afghan forces and leave Afghanistan till the 31st of August. As withdrawal commenced and the United States forces kept decreasing, the Taliban began advancing and started raids on Afghan forces; firstly, they entered into rural areas of Afghanistan. Then they started growing towards urban regions. The United States intelligence assumed that Taliban advancement towards Kabul would take 6 to 9 months. However, the Taliban were heading with proper strategic planning at a fast pace. The captivating factor was that Afghan forces stepped down without any hassle. The governors of different provinces also capitulated, making it easy for the Taliban to seize those provinces. On the 15th of August, when the Taliban infiltrated the outskirts of Kabul while President Ashraf Ghani absconded, leaving behind the people of Afghanistan in chaos. A mess was created in Afghanistan, and questions were raised: if it was prearranged, or it was a failure of the United States, who is responsible for the current situation, what will be the future of the people of Afghanistan, will the Taliban be able to bring peace and prosperity in Afghanistan, who will fill the power vacuum, and what will be the future relations of Afghanistan with its neighbors?

The Taliban is endeavoring to establish a government in Afghanistan, and to some extent, they have taken control due to their advanced strategic planning. The Taliban are also ensuring the world community that we will act rationally. They have already announced an amnesty for all, either local or foreign, but the main thing is who will fulfill the power vacuum.

The takeover of the Taliban and the fall of Kabul has changed the regional security dynamics; the world community is not sure about Taliban behavior, how they will follow international norms and rules, are worried about women’s rights, and all that. As Afghanistan is geo strategic location and a gate way for the East Asian countries towards central Asian republics so multiple interests still lies, Russia is also interested to make influence in Afghanistan as they have the dream to reach into hot waters, on the other hand United States will never ever allow his opponents to settle in Afghanistan or having good relations with Taliban government because they will not remain this event as their loss, so all those multiple interests of neighbors and other powerful countries will create a situation of chaos in Afghanistan, talking about internal issues so there are multiple groups like ISIS,TTP and those fighters in Panjsher valley commanded by Ahmed Masood the son Ahmed Shah Masood joined by afghan forces which were not ready to surrender, these groups will be the cause of upcoming and inevitable civil war in Afghanistan because to fulfil their interests countries like China and Russia will be pro-Taliban government and want good relations as China already offered a large amount of investment in Afghanistan on other hand united states will be in urge to destabilize Taliban government and they will use these militants and rebel groups against Taliban by providing weapons and financial aid which will cause long term civil war in Afghanistan and the perfect example is the previous bomb blasts near Kabul airport.

In general, the Afghanistan situation is entirely blurred; it’s unpredictable no one can give an accurate prediction about the future of Afghanistan. Still, I believe that Afghanistan will never practice peace and prosperity having Taliban in government. As the United States will never allow the Taliban to settle and act against their interest. This chaos will directly affect the security of the whole region. A civil war in Afghanistan seems to be a significant threat for CPEC. Indian involvement will also be on the page as they are aligned with the United States in sabotaging the CPEC and China’s One Belt One Road Initiative. The bomb blasts, the defiance by Ahmed Massoud’s group in Panjsher, the emergence of IS-K, and the rocket attacks have puzzled the world about the future of Afghanistan. However, one thing is clear and that is the inevitability of a deadly civil war in Afghanistan.

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